Preview of Kyiv Mayoral Election
2008 - Democratic Forces Disagree on Process and Candidate Support
Following charges of bribery and corruption against current Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky, Ukraine's Parliament voted in favor of holding a snap election in May.
On March 18, 2008 Ukraine's Parliament voted in favor of conducting early mayoral and city council elections in Kyiv. The motion was backed by 246 deputies from the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT), Our Ukraine People's Self Defense Bloc (NUNS), and the Communist Party.
Election Background
Current Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky won the March 2006 election, but has since been troubled by accusations he bribed City Council deputies by allotting them choice plots of land around Kyiv for construction projects.
Earlier this year, following an altercation between Chernovetsky and Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko took action to have the mayor removed from office.
After President Viktor Yushchenko refused to dismiss Chernovetsky, Tymoshenko threatened to have BYuT walk out of Parliament if lawmakers failed to call for an early election. On March 18, by a vote of 246-5, the Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution (document 143-17) calling for early mayoral and city council elections. The election is currently scheduled for May 25.
Mayoral Candidates
The Kyiv electoral commission has received at least 150 applications from various people wishing to participate in the election. Notable candidates for the mayor's office are:
- Leonid Chernovetsky - the incumbent Mayor from the Christian Liberal Party of Ukraine. Chernovetsky has denied allegations of corruption and draws support from pensioners, city workers who have gained perks and higher wages, and evangelical Christians.
- Vitaly Klitschko - a former heavyweight boxer and current member of the Kyiv City Council. Klitchko is extremely popular and has the support of Kyiv land developers and President Yushchenko.
- Oleksandr Turchynov - Ukraine’s current Deputy Prime Minister representing the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. Even with BYuT support, Turchynov has little chance of victory.
- Oleksandr Omelchenko - a former Kyiv Mayor who is not considered a serious threat to win the election.
- Yuri Lutsenko - Ukraine's current Minister of Internal Affairs, was heavily involved with Democratic forces during the 2004 Orange Revolution.
- Mykola Tomenko - a Verkhovna Rada Deputy representing BYuT. Tomenko is heading the ad-hoc commission investigating corruption charges against Chernovetsky.
Other candidates include Vasyl Hrobal (Party of Regions), Oleh Tyahnbok (All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom"), and Vladyslav Kaskyv (civil party "PORA.").
Poll Results
Several organizations have conducted public opinion polls since the election was announced. Most polls indicate a close race between Chernovetsky and Klitschko, but disagree on the frontrunner. Results of the most recent poll, conducted by the Center of Political and Marketing Studies - Sotsis are:
- Chernovetsky - 22.8%
- Klitschko - 22%
- Omelchenko - 11.5%
- Tomenko - 6.3%
- Lutsenko - 5.7%
Campaign Analysis
Ukraine's Central Election Commission estimates the cost of this early election to be $3 million. Ukraine's Committee of Voters, a non-governmental organization, estimates political parties and candidates will spend $100 million on their campaigns.
At stake is the ability to control the distribution of Kyiv's land plots, which is the responsibility of the mayor and city council. Land plots in Kyiv are a status symbol that come with power, money and influence to their owners.
Ukraine's Democratic forces are divided in their support, with Yushchenko backing Klitschko and Tymoshenko and BYuT supporting Turchynov. If Democratic votes are split between two candidates, Chernovetsky will gain a sizable advantage.
Acknowledging this split and Chernovetsky’s potential advantage, Tymoshenko has proposed a 2-phase election, requiring a mayoral run-off between the top two candidates from the first round of voting. Despite Tymoshenko’s attempts to change the electoral process, a run-off will not occur because President Yushchenko has vowed to veto any such bill, citing the country's need for stability and calm.
This election has the potential to become as volatile as Ukraine’s 2004 Presidential election and the 2007 snap Parliamentary election.
References
"Klitschko submits documents to register as candidate for Kyiv Mayor post." Unian News Agency. April 10, 2008.
Korduban, Pavel. "Tymoshenko Wants Kyiv Mayor Out." Eurasia Daily Monitor/Jamestown Foundation. March 20, 2008.
"Poll: Klitschko leads in Kyiv mayor election." Korrespondent. March 22, 2008.
"Sotsis: Chernovetsky leads Klitschko by 0.8%." Korrespondent. March 21, 2008.
Zawada, Zenon. "Mayor leads election campaign." Kyiv Post. April 17, 2008.
