A close election in Ukraine has produced a small parliamentary majority for democratic forces. Talks have begun with opposition leaders to form a ruling coalition.

The tension-filled September 30, 2007 parliamentary election in Ukraine produced an extremely tight race that will result in continued governmental turmoil. With 99.93% of votes counted, The Party of Regions technically won the election with 34.35% of the vote, but an alliance of democratic “Orange” forces will control the Verkhovna Rada.

Voting Results

The results of Sunday’s election, by political group, are:

• Party of Regions - 34.35%
• Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - 30.73%
• Our Ukraine People’s Self Defense Bloc - 14.16%
• Communist Party - 5.38%
• Lytvyn Bloc - 3.96%
• Socialist Party - 2.86%

Parliamentary Alliances and Coalition

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has announced the formation of a governing coalition between his Our Ukraine party and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. At the same time, Yushchenko also called for cooperation between all parties to form a unity government. The Party of Regions has accepted this offer and is willing to begin talks with Yushchenko and Our Ukraine, while Tymoshenko rejects the possibility of a coalition with the Party of Regions.

New Structure of Parliament

The election results indicate the alliance between the Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine Blocs will hold 228 seats in the Verkhovna Rada, providing them with a razor-thin majority of 6 seats in the 450-set Parliament. The structure of Parliament, by Party, will be (with number of seats):

• Party of Regions - 175
• Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - 156
• Our Ukraine People’s Self Defense Bloc - 72
• Communist Party - 27
• Lytvyn Bloc - 20

The Socialist Party is not listed because they did not reach the three percent vote threshold needed to win seats in Parliament.

Will Yanukovych Fight to Maintain Power?

The Orange majority gives that group the right to name the country’s Prime Minister, and Yulia Tymoshenko is their choice. Current Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, head of the Party of Regions, may not cede power without a fight. His party won the election, so he would see no reason for losing his position as Prime Minister.

Yanukovych has proposed a new broad coalition government in which he would remain as Prime Minister, but the Party of Regions would share power with the Orange forces. Yushchenko wants to remove Yanukovych as Prime Minister, but is willing to allow Party of Regions members to become ministers in the government. Tymoshenko, however, is completely opposed to such an idea.

Election Analysis

The result of this election may be more of the same in Ukrainian politics, but with new faces and issues. If Tymoshenko is confirmed as Prime Minister, it will be her second term in that position under Yushchenko. The first term came after the Orange Revolution victory in 2004, but she only lasted eight months before being dismissed by Yushchenko. This has been a source of contention between the two ever since. Tymoshenko has said that she learned much from her first term and vowed to be more of a team player this time.

It would not be surprising if Yanukovych and the Party of Regions challenge the election results. Their first argument would be that they won the election, but were forced out of power by a coalition that was not formalized until after the election.

The other argument, even though Yanukovych agreed to the election and referred to it as legitimate, would be the election was illegal and never should have happened. Their contention is Yushchenko never had the authority to dissolve parliament, which was the act that caused the election to take place.

In time, we will see if Yushchenko and Tymoshenko can coexist, and whether a unity government can be formed with Yanukovych and the Party of Regions.

References

Ruling Coalition to be Formed in Ukraine. Kommersant. October 3, 2007.

Ukraine: “Orange” parties gain thin majority. Boerse-Express. October 4, 2007.